Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis, Part I

For many of Loudoun's housing market indicators, the results in January 2010 worsened compared to December 2009 (month-over-month) but showed significant improvement compared to January 2009 (year-over-year). However, total sales declined 45 percent compared to last month, a normal cyclical trend, and 21 percent compared to last January. Pending sales increased 9.2 percent both month-over-month and year-over-year. The year-end median sales price declined compared to December but improved 7.5 percent compared to last January. The total number of detached unit sales exceeded attached unit sales by only 4 homes (following an "early in the year" trend). Revised month's supply of inventory figures show the county is in equilibrium with an available supply of 4.6 months or less for the last eight consecutive months but in specific zip codes, there is not enough supply to satisfy demand. The close price to original list price ratio and the days on market indicators declined versus December but had significant improvement compared to January 2009. Distressed sales accounted for more than 40 percent of the total sales in Loudoun County for six of the last nine months.

Notes Concerning the Data in This Analysis

1. The data used in this report is collected from MRIS, a dynamic database of real estate activity. This report reflects MRIS data at one time, it is a "snapshot" of activity for the previous month that can and regularly does change as Realtors enter listings, sales and contract information on an ongoing basis. Preliminary sales results are collected on the tenth of the month for the previous month and revised with final results thirty days later. Historical sales data from 2009 was revised February 9, 2010.

2. Zip codes are combined in some cases to conserve space. Zip code 20184 (Upperville) is included in 20117 (Middleburg); 20134 and 20160 (Lincoln) are included in 20132 (Purcellville); 20135 (Bluemont) is included in 20141 (Round Hill); 20129 (Paeonian Springs) is included in 20197 (Waterford); and 22066 (Great Falls) is included in 20165 (Sterling).

3. Unless otherwise noted, "list price" refers to "original list price".

4. House types excluded from this analysis include "bed & breakfast," "mobile," "other," "garage/park space," "house of worship," "dwelling w/rental," "double wide," "rooming house," "vacation home," or "vacation rental."

5. Active listings refers to those with "active" status as of the tenth of the current month and are considered a "snapshot" of activity in the previous month. Listings exclude "expired," "withdrawn" and "temporarily withdrawn" statuses. Preliminary results are not revised.

6. The average seller subsidy indicator (by month and by zip code) was added in 2010.

7. SFD refers to detached units. SFA refers to townhouse, attached/row house, patio, duplex, back to back, triplex, quad, over storefront, and semi-detached units. CON refers to garden style, mid-rise, hi-rise, penthouse, and multi-family units.

8. Pending sales refers to listings marked "Contingency/KO", "Contingency/No KO" or "Contract" as of the tenth of the current month ("new pendings") and are considered a "snapshot" of activity in the previous month. Pending sales may or may not close in the future. Data used for historical comparisons before January 1, 2010 includes the house types listed in Note #4. Preliminary results are not revised.

9. New in 2010, months supply of inventory (MSI) is calculated using the following formula: Active Listings/Monthly Sales. MSI figures dated prior to January 1, 2010 were recalculated using the new collection date and formula and include house types listed in Note #4.

10. In April 2009, MRIS added forced fields for short sales and foreclosures thereby significantly increasing the results of these indicators thereafter.

11. All sales, pending sales and active listings include new construction. All sales, pending sales and active listings are classified as "for sale."

Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis The table above and the graph below show the increases in sales and median sales prices during Loudoun's housing boom between 2001 and 2005. Sales volume began a three-year decline in 2006. Sales rebounded in 2008 and revised figures show that 2009 finished the year with only 48 fewer sales than in 2008. It is too early in 2010 to rely on the annualized sales estimates. Median sales prices increased steadily from 2001 to 2005 and remained flat in 2006. Price declines lasted through 2009 with the largest percentage decline in 2008. As with the annualized sales, it is too early in 2010 to expect median sales prices to remain this low.

Source: www.dullesarea.net

Speculation on the housing market, both locally and nationally, has not been sparse, and often, not accurate. This week’s Real Estate section, returning based largely on speculation, will feature key metrics, graphs and analysis of the Loudoun real estate market, right down to the zip code. Statistics and comprehensive information has been provided by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors (DAAR) and the organizations Housing Analyst, Rosemary deButts. deButts serves as the Housing Analyst for both DAAR and the Virginia Association of Realtors (VAR) providing not only analysis of county and statewide trends but also their historical context. deButts also works as a licensed Virginia Realtor for 1757 Real Estate Company in Leesburg.